Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Last major update issued on October 29, 2013 at 04:20 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 9, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 10, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 159.9 (increasing 53.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 117.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.4). Three hour interval K indices: 00100000 (planetary), 12101211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 8 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 209) and 8 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 145) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11875 [N06W81] was very active during the day. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the southern part of the large penumbra. A major proton flare is possible while the region transits the west limb. C5+ flares: major X1.0/2N at 02:03 (associated with a partial halo CME), major M5.1/2B at 04:41, C5.2 at 09:22, M2.8/1N at 14:05, long duration M1.9 event pekaing at 15:54 (unreported by SWPC), M1.5 at 20:57 UTC.
Region 11877 [S12W57] decayed slowly but could still produce occasional flares. C5+ flares: M1.4/2N at 11:53 UTC
Region 11879 [S12W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11882 [S10E21] still has a magnetic delta structure and could produce a major flare. C5+ flares: M2.7/1N at 15:01, M4.4 at 15:15 UTC. A full halo CME was associated with the M flares.Region 11883 [N02E45] was quiet and stable (this is actually a southern hemisphere region).
Region 11884 [S15E54] developed slowly and could produce a major flare.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
New region S2784 [S17E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2787 [N13E06] emerged with a few spots.
October 27: The CMEs originating in AR 11875 does not appear to be Earth directed.
October 28: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery after the X1 flare early in the day. The CME could reach Earth on October 30 or 31. A full halo CME was observed after an M4.4 event in AR 11882 and could reach Earth on October 30 or 31.
A small coronal hole near the center of the disk will be in an Earth facing position on October 29.
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report Jorma OH3MEO muistutti tästä sivusta ja sen linkeistä, tnx!
DX-peditioita
T33A Banaba Isl.5 -10.11.2013 http://www.t33a.com/
K9W Wake Isl. 3 -30.11.2013 http://www.wake2013.org/
JD1BOI Ogasawara nyt äänessä http://www.qrz.com/db/JD1BOI
Last major update issued on October 29, 2013 at 04:20 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 9, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 10, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
Recent activity
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on October 28. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 270 and 320 km/s.Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 159.9 (increasing 53.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 117.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.4). Three hour interval K indices: 00100000 (planetary), 12101211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 8 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 209) and 8 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 145) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11875 [N06W81] was very active during the day. The region has a magnetic delta structure in the southern part of the large penumbra. A major proton flare is possible while the region transits the west limb. C5+ flares: major X1.0/2N at 02:03 (associated with a partial halo CME), major M5.1/2B at 04:41, C5.2 at 09:22, M2.8/1N at 14:05, long duration M1.9 event pekaing at 15:54 (unreported by SWPC), M1.5 at 20:57 UTC.
Region 11877 [S12W57] decayed slowly but could still produce occasional flares. C5+ flares: M1.4/2N at 11:53 UTC
Region 11879 [S12W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11882 [S10E21] still has a magnetic delta structure and could produce a major flare. C5+ flares: M2.7/1N at 15:01, M4.4 at 15:15 UTC. A full halo CME was associated with the M flares.Region 11883 [N02E45] was quiet and stable (this is actually a southern hemisphere region).
Region 11884 [S15E54] developed slowly and could produce a major flare.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
New region S2784 [S17E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2787 [N13E06] emerged with a few spots.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
October 26: An asymmetric halo CME was observed after the M1.8 LDE near 11h. Due to many other CMEs it is difficult to determine if this one was full or partial halo. The CME could reach Earth on October 29.October 27: The CMEs originating in AR 11875 does not appear to be Earth directed.
October 28: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery after the X1 flare early in the day. The CME could reach Earth on October 30 or 31. A full halo CME was observed after an M4.4 event in AR 11882 and could reach Earth on October 30 or 31.
Coronal holes
Coronal hole history (since October 2002) Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days agoA small coronal hole near the center of the disk will be in an Earth facing position on October 29.
Propagation
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor due to enhanced proton levels. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 29 becoming quiet to minor storm on October 30-31 due to CME effects.| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Active solar regions
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report Jorma OH3MEO muistutti tästä sivusta ja sen linkeistä, tnx!
DX-peditioita
T33A Banaba Isl.5 -10.11.2013 http://www.t33a.com/
K9W Wake Isl. 3 -30.11.2013 http://www.wake2013.org/
JD1BOI Ogasawara nyt äänessä http://www.qrz.com/db/JD1BOI
de OH2KIF
http://spacenear.us/tracker/ ilmapallojen aprs
Dx digiä:
1-7.11 Pääs.saaret XR0YY By CX4CR CX3AN CX2AM CX3CE CE0HYO EA7FTR EA5HPX fm Hanga Roa ((SA-001, DICE ICE-001, WLOTA 0319, WWFF CEFF-027, DG52gu); 160-6m; CW SSB + digital; 3 stations http://easterisland2013.com/
1-9.11 Vietnam XV2CNH By JA6CNH fm Ho Chi Minh City; 160-6m; CW SSB + digital
1-30.11 U. Kaledonia FK By F5IRO as FK/F5IRO fm Plum (OC-032, DIFO FK-001, WLOTA 1280, DDFM 988); 80-10m; CW, some PSK; dipoles, long wires; operation expected to continue until Mar 1, 2014; LotW upload Mar 2014
3-9.11 Niue E6 By JA8VE as E6AA, JA1KJW as E6AK, and JA1JQY as E6AY fm OC-040; 80-10m; CW SSB + digital; high power; Spider beam + Hex beam http://qrz.com/db/E6AA
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